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Kelcimer
Learned Scribe

USA
136 Posts

Posted - 21 Aug 2021 :  23:24:36  Show Profile Send Kelcimer a Private Message  Reply with Quote  Delete Topic
I have come to the opinion that Manshoon is an idiot. This is not an opinion that is lightly formed, as it has been 20 years in the making. I have also figured out an in game explanation for why Manshoon was so muddled in the head. My apologies for the length of this post. I recognize that a lot of people here really like Manshoon. I don't mean this to detract from your enjoyment of the character in anyway. Consider this an alternative interpretation. I just really wanted to articulate my thoughts on Manshoon to a group of people who would be able to properly appreciate it. Even if they may sharply disagree with my conclusion.

My campaign in Forgotten Realms stretches back to the late 90's and is really 8 different campaigns in total. So many events have happened in my game in that time, that my Forgotten Realms differs very sharply in a number of ways due to divergent history. Basically, I acknowledge that everything in the Campaign Setting Book was true in 1372, but events since then have made the reality on the ground quite different.

I did not use the Zhentarium in my early games and, as my game progressed, areas where the Zhents operated were subsumed by other events. Eventually, I realized that, quite unintentionally, the Zhents had been taking it on the chin just about everywhere.

Most particularly at the end of my third campaign that caused what is known as the March of Cormanthor, where the forest grew over Northern Sembia and throughout the Tesh River Valley. The consciousness that was directing the growth was more concerned about Sembia, but it also didn't like the Zhents and so it made sense that it would grow the forest in that direction as well. In context of the march of Cormanthor there was the question of what would happen with Zhentil Keep itself. I didn't really have a purpose for it as a ruined city that could serve as a destination or as an actual living city, so I decided that one of the Manshoons had (somehow) shifted it to another plane or pocket dimension.

Meanwhile, in real life, I have over the course of years become a buff on history, economics, geography, politics, and how they intersect one another. As I ran my game over the past two decades, I have applied that knowledge to my game.

About five years ago, I realized that I had unintentionally caused the Zhents to take it on the chin for so long. I tried to think about how I could have them come back and what I could do with Manshoon Prime who was theoretically still attached to Zhentil Keep. I liked the idea of the Zhentarium. I liked the idea of Manshoon. But I can't run a bad guy unless I can understand what they want. I looked at the history of Manshoon to figure out what he wanted. I ultimately realized he was unusable to me as a DM for my game. He had spent a hundred years making sure the Zhentarium was a low level threat across much of Faerun, but never concentrated his power in any one place. To what purpose? Based upon what he had put his energies towards and what he had to show for it, I couldn't say he was competent.

I know the out of game reason for this, because the purpose of Manshoon and his Zhentarium was to be a shadowy threat to players wherever they may be in the world. But the world needs to make sense within itself. I couldn't think of an actual in game reason for Manshoon to have been so incompetent. So I shelved the idea of using him as a badguy. I had, in the background, knew where there were several Manshoon clones still active. (None of them had ever made an in-game appearance. I just wanted to know roughly where they were just in case.) I decided they would all quietly go away.

But all of this is not what made me decide that Manshoon was an idiot.

In the new campaign I am working on, I wound up setting it in the Moonsea area and have run a few sessions in and around Phlan. The March of Cormanthor happened in 1375-1376, it is now in the mid 1380's, and I am considering the geopolitical situation of Phlan (of all places).

From my notes: "Phlan commands the Stojanow River Valley. Bounded by the north by the Dragonspire Mountains, the east by Cormanthor, and the south by the Moonsea, the only soft border it has is with the Grey Land of Thar, but the River Stowjanow provides a hard defensive line to the orcs in the east. Phlan’s population is bolstered by many former residents of the Tesh River Valley, which both makes it more economically productive, but also provides more manpower to see to the defense of the far side of the Stojanow River."

But what was it's situation before? And then I really looked at the geography that Manshoon had to deal with for a century and that is when I realized he is a complete idiot, no getting around it.

History is replete with nations that first come into being by commanding an entire river valley. The reason for this is simple. The lowlands near the mouth of the river are going to be both better agriculturally and commercially due to being in a superb position to trade on the water. This means that the city-state at the mouth of a river valley will, over time, naturally become wealthier and more populous than the lands upriver. It then becomes only a matter of time before the city-state at the mouth of the river conquers everything upriver. Manshoon was ruling Zhentil Keep in the 1260's. I can go along with the idea that he faced stiff resistance from Teshendale and Dagger Dale, but one good military campaign up the Tesh River Valley and both of them should have been firmly attached to Zhentil Keep. The idea that he waited FIVE DECADEs to go after Teshendale and another TWO to go after Dagger Dale makes utterly no sense. During this time he frittered away a lot of energy on a lot of other stuff (such as the utterly useless Citadel of the Raven. No strategic value to that at all.) when he could have easily picked up the entire Tesh River Valley by the 1280's at the latest. With the entire river valley, Zhentil keep would have had more agricultural resources to support a larger population and a larger tax base to maintain it's army.

From that position of strength, the next two biggest threats to Zhentil Keep would have been Phlan and Hillsfar. Forget Mulmaster. Sea invasions are hard. Land invasions are easy. You just march your army across. Phlan and Hillsfar could both march armies directly at Zhentil Keep. The weaker of the two would be Phlan. By conquering Phlan that would make Zhentil Keeps Northeast border anchored at the Stowjanow. That would only leave Hillsfar as a geographic weak point. Hillsfar and Phlan would have been wise to team up an crush Zhentil Keep at any point. Think of the geographic position of Germany on the Northern European Plain with France on one side and Russia on the other. Germany's nightmare scenario was an attack on both sides. Same should have been for Zhentil Keep. Hillsfar would have to have recognized that it would not have stood a chance of being able to match the economic and military might of a Stowjanow and Tesh River Valley's united. That should have been Hillsfar's nightmare scenario.

And because Manshoon is supposed to be a Grade A badguy, Doctor Doom style, then he shouldn't have been a slouch. I could say, for story purposes, that Manshoon should have had all of that territory under firm control by the 1280's or 1300 at the latest. That would have resulted in Manshoon having his countries borders be anchored by Cormanthor to the south, the Dragonspire Mountains to the North, mountains and Border Forest to the West, and the Moonsea and Stojanow to the East.

From THAT position, Manshoon would have been very secure, but have difficulty projecting power. Moving into Thar would be easy, but holding it would be hard, and for little gain. Also, remember, sea invasions are hard and that is what an invasion of Mulmaster would be. And Mulmaster would be in a great position to control the Strait of Lis and cut Zhentil Keep off from the larger market of the Sea of fallen Stars. So I could see Mulmaster and Zhentil Keep achieving a stalemate that would prevent Zhentil Keep breaking out of the Moonsea as a direct political entity. Remember also, this is a world of monsters and stuff on the edge of civilization. His ability to power project would be hampered by having to maintain forts along his wilderness borders to deal with monsters. At THAT point, Manshoon deciding to spend his energies covertly trying to pull the strings around Faerun make more sense.

But Manshoon didn't do all that. And it is about fifteen years too late (in real time) for me to revise the history of my game as that would have changed the dynamics of my 3rd campaign.

So the world needs to make sense to me. Why would Manshoon be such an idiot and so incompetent for over the course of a hundred years?

My working solution is that he was cursed. As Zhentil Keep was conquering Teshendale, a witch living on the border area with Phlan could see the writing on the wall. She had interacted with Manshoon a few times and knew how dangerous he could be. First Teshendale, then Daggerdale, and then, without anyone to complicate his rear, that Manshoon would turn his attention to Phlan. Maybe she even had a vision of the future to steer her. However it was, so she sought out a place of power. Maybe an earth node? Whatever. It's a place of power. And maybe she brought in some allies to construct the curse. The curse being that Manshoon be obsessed with anything and everything not related to Phlan. If Manshoon turned his minds eye to Phlan, even a couple steps ahead in his thinking, he would find something else that he would need to devote his attention to. Thus, he could never serious devote resources to conquering Dagger Dale or making sure the garrison there was appropriate strength, because that would be a necessary step to be able to devote attention to Phlan. Yes! Let us rebuild the strategically useless Citadel of the Raven! Yes! Let us try to create "trade routes" across inhospitable land that won't ever return on investment! Yes! Let's needlessly antagonize being in X land and only put enough strength into it so that it will be like Vietnam! Always fighting! Never able to really attain victory! Yes!

Such a powerful curse this was that it might require annual sacrifices and even after Manshoon is gone those who have been entrusted with the sacrifices continue to do so. Maybe they don't know that all the Manshoon's are gone. Maybe because the specifics of why they make annual sacrifices have been lost over the past hundred years and the sacrifices on the alter in the place of power have taken on different meanings.

I think I want to have my players have to bring a stop to these sacrifices, just so that I can bring this explanation into the continuity of my game.

Anyway, if you made it this far into the post, I appreciate it. I am interested to hear what thoughts you may have. I am sure that some people may say that i am missing something or that my assumptions are wrong in some way. I’ll probably disagree, but I look forward to reading what you have to say.

George Krashos
Master of Realmslore

Australia
6662 Posts

Posted - 22 Aug 2021 :  09:18:43  Show Profile Send George Krashos a Private Message  Reply with Quote
You need to read the short story "So High a Price" in the short story anthology Realms of Infamy.

-- George Krashos

"Because only we, contrary to the barbarians, never count the enemy in battle." -- Aeschylus
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Kelcimer
Learned Scribe

USA
136 Posts

Posted - 22 Aug 2021 :  20:46:13  Show Profile Send Kelcimer a Private Message  Reply with Quote
I recognize the cover of Realms of Infamy. I had that book in my collection back in the day. So I had to have read the story when I got the book, but probably gave it away when I cut down on my book collection about 2005. So all I have immediately to go on is what the wiki says about the story.

The wiki says that it is set in 1334 and that Elminster plotted with Fzoul to stop Manshoon from overthrowing the Council of Zhentil Keep.

Could you please summarize the bits in the story that should affect my opinion about Manshoon?
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George Krashos
Master of Realmslore

Australia
6662 Posts

Posted - 23 Aug 2021 :  08:05:31  Show Profile Send George Krashos a Private Message  Reply with Quote
In a nutshell, your analysis conflates control of the Zhentarim with control of Zhentil Keep. In the time period you specify 1280-1300, he controls the nascent Zhentarim, not the city. Moreover, the Harpers deduce the existence of the Zhentarim in 1270 DR, actively warning the Dales and Cormyr of its existence and aims/ambitions while working to undermine its activities. The Dalelands and the Moonsea are filled with independent small holdings. They have never been joined into an empire. Their outlook is against such a thing occurring. Manshoon knows that he can't actively proclaim the founding of "Manshoonia" because it just means that it will make what he's trying to do an open target for all to unify against him - including opposition in Zhentil Keep itself. As happened to Lashan of Scardale (and many others before him). So Manshoon has to take the slower route. Subvert city-states and places, control them through intermediaries and underlings in secret, all the while fending off internal rivals, the Harpers, Hillsfar, Mulmaster, Thar, and the elves of the Cormanthor woods where he conflicts with them.

I think your analysis of the trade machinations of the Zhentarim is simplistic - they aren't looking to trade with the Sea of Fallen Stars. That horse bolted centuries before. The Sembians control that in a way the Zhents can never replicate. What he is trying to do is create the quickest, most lucrative, "long chance" trade route with the Sword Coast and the North. The pay off is massive, but so is the undertaking to make it happen. And that can't occur overnight. At the same time he is dealing with Banites, beholders, dragons, and fellow ambitious wizards.

I think you underestimate what he's trying to do here.

-- George Krashos

"Because only we, contrary to the barbarians, never count the enemy in battle." -- Aeschylus
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ericlboyd
Forgotten Realms Designer

USA
2067 Posts

Posted - 23 Aug 2021 :  16:58:32  Show Profile  Visit ericlboyd's Homepage Send ericlboyd a Private Message  Reply with Quote
I think there’s also a religious element here or at least there was up through 1357 DR. Think of Rome and Constantinople when you think of Zhentil Keep and Mulmaster, at least from the perspective of Banites.

--
http://www.ericlboyd.com/dnd/
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TheIriaeban
Master of Realmslore

USA
1289 Posts

Posted - 23 Aug 2021 :  19:51:04  Show Profile Send TheIriaeban a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Thank you, Eric, for that insight. I was trying to figure out why the Darkhold would have thrown away its opportunity to appear more benevolent after the destruction of Varalla. The influence of the Banites would be just the thing.

"Iriaebor is a fine city. So what if you can have violence between merchant groups break out at any moment. Not every city can offer dinner AND a show."

My FR writeups - http://www.mediafire.com/folder/um3liz6tqsf5n/Documents
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Diffan
Great Reader

USA
4435 Posts

Posted - 24 Aug 2021 :  00:22:14  Show Profile Send Diffan a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Keep in mind that Phlan WAS conquered by the Zhentarim army in 1375 DR by Cvaal Daoran, Hatemaster of Bane.
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nblanton
Seeker

USA
87 Posts

Posted - 24 Aug 2021 :  03:29:52  Show Profile Send nblanton a Private Message  Reply with Quote
This pains me, but I have to say, there is a lot to agree with from Kelcimer.

I enjoyed Manshoon, but I always wondered what the Ed version was, as it supposedly was nerfed pretty seriously by the TSR folks.

That said, I wasn't ever really able to square the circle of what the aims of the Zhentarim were, or what they were prior to 1369DR, when it appears that Manshoon completely lost control of the organization following the sack of Zhentil Keep, from which Manshoon really never seems to recover, especially with the following Manshoon Wars.

Maybe Manshoon was never able to quite consolidate his gains well enough to really capitalize on his goal?


It is the spirit of the game, not the letter of the rules, which is important. Never hold to the letter written, nor allow some barracks room lawyer to force quotations from the rule book upon you, if it goes against the obvious intent of the game.

Afterword, DMG pg 230.
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Storyteller Hero
Learned Scribe

USA
329 Posts

Posted - 24 Aug 2021 :  06:08:36  Show Profile  Visit Storyteller Hero's Homepage Send Storyteller Hero a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Some things to consider:

Manshoon perhaps doesn't need to be a conquerer. That attracts dangerous attention anyway and Manshoon has a reputation of being cautious to the point of having clones on standby.

Manshoon doesn't have to worry about dying of old age. His knowledge of magic makes extending his life a trivial matter. Time doesn't have the same sense of urgency to him as it would for mortal beings.

Manshoon seems to like to have fun, and doesn't seem to be insanely obsessed with villainy. For example, despite their history of conflict, Manshoon spares the life of Elminster in a recent situation when Elminster is too defenseless to resist.

Manshoon is a powerful wizard and has the same weakness of all powerful wizards, a desire to satiate his curiosity for knowledge. This can often mean stretching out resources to cover more ground, to expand the reach of awareness.

Manshoon probably doesn't see political power or military power the way that many mortals would. To him, they may be just tools and means to ends rather than goals in of themselves. Gains in such are transient by nature, a mere game not to be taken too seriously for one who can outlive most empires if careful.




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Edited by - Storyteller Hero on 24 Aug 2021 06:12:08
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Kelcimer
Learned Scribe

USA
136 Posts

Posted - 24 Aug 2021 :  07:42:46  Show Profile Send Kelcimer a Private Message  Reply with Quote
George Krashos,

Thank you for your more detailed response. There is actually a lot to break down and I will do my best to address each point. I apologize for the length of the post.

You said, "In a nutshell, your analysis conflates control of the Zhentarim with control of Zhentil Keep. In the time period you specify 1280-1300, he controls the nascent Zhentarim, not the city."

I do not think I am conflating anything, as three source books support my understanding.

From the “Villains Lorebook” published in 1998 page 47:
"Over the years, Manshoon easily took control of the Keep's ruling council [...]. With the city under his thumb, Manshoon created the Zhentarium in 1261 DR."

From “The Ruins of Zhentil Keep Campaign Book” published in 1995 page 14-15:
“Mindful of his exposed position at the pinnacle of power in Zhentil Keep, Manshoon immediately set about creating a secret organization - the Zhentarium - that would support him, his rule over Zhentil Keep, and his ambitions throughout the rest of the Realms.”

From “Cloak and Dagger” published in 2000 pages 32 and 33:
“Working his way to power through patricide and fratricide, Manshoon became a lord of Zhentil Keep, and swiftly moved to gain full control over his fellow lords. He formed his secret society, the Zhentarium, to act as a separate power group and allow him more than mere rulership of Zhentil Keep.”

These source books are clear and consistent, that Manshoon became the ruler of Zhentil Keep and from that position of wealth and power he then created the Zhentarium.


You said: “They have never been joined into an empire. Their outlook is against such a thing occurring. Manshoon knows that he can't actively proclaim the founding of "Manshoonia" because it just means that it will make what he's trying to do an open target for all to unify against him - including opposition in Zhentil Keep itself.”

That the Dalelands and Moonsea have never been part of an empire is actually reason for them not to worry. Human nature is such that if something has not happened before, then they don’t expect it to happen. Even if something has happened before, that doesn’t mean many people will take it seriously. An example of this is Churchill spent a lot of time marginalized in British politics because he saw Hitler as a threat that needed addressing. And he was marginalized even though Germany had been part of the opposition powers only a short time previous is WW1.

He wouldn’t need to “proclaim the founding of "Manshoonia”. We’re talking basic oligarchy tactics here. The oligarchy is the most common form of government in all of human history. It is the rule by a small group of people. You don’t need to be a mastermind to pull it off. Many dull witted rulers stayed on top throughout history by making sure that key supporters stayed happy. One of the easiest things to do is make war on an easy nearby target and for the spoils to go to you and the key supporters of your oligarchy. If Manshoon was as intelligent as he is supposed to have been, then it would have been mere child’s play to have the full council behind him on waging war up the Tesh River Valley. It doesn’t matter if a scattering of people in other localities think that isn’t a good thing to have happen if Manshoon has built a strong army. Strong armies marching across land are immune to quite a lot of intrigue and plotting by people far away at the time of the conquering.

And to be clear, there are many instances of armies being raised and conquering getting rolling throughout human history with their neighbors doing little to nothing in effectively preparing to deal with a rising power, only realizing they should do something after it is too late. Generally speaking, in history, when people become rulers, they are feeling their oats and push as hard as they can to get as much as they can. Manshoon would have been a young guy when he became ruler and as blood thirsty as he would have been, there really isn’t a reason for him to be timid. The only reason for Manshoon to fear encountering opposition from all the quarters you mention is if he is more timid then the better part of rulers in the course of human history. That is not an impressive bad guy.


You also said: “I think your analysis of the trade machinations of the Zhentarium is simplistic - they aren't looking to trade with the Sea of Fallen Stars. That horse bolted centuries before. The Sembians control that in a way the Zhents can never replicate. What he is trying to do is create the quickest, most lucrative, "long chance" trade route with the Sword Coast and the North. The pay off is massive, but so is the undertaking to make it happen.”

The relationship of bodies of water and trade is really very interesting. It is no accident that the Roman Empire and many other coastal kingdoms, nations, and empires followed closely to the coastline. Rivers, seas, and oceans were the highways of the ancient world. The is a reason that ancient cities always pop up on rivers. It is by far the cheapest way to move goods. It was true 2000 years ago and it is true today. On the open waters you can move far more material with sails and/or oarsmen than you can overland and especially compared to over mountain ranges. How many tons you load on one wagon pulled by two oxen, or pack on one camel? You don’t count what you put on them in terms of tons. Early large Greek merchant ships could carry an average of 250 tons of cargo. There is no way pack animals are going to compete with that.

Consider Russia. For almost as long as it has existed, Russia has made having warm water ports a priority, fighting to control the Black Sea as much as possible over the course of hundred of years. It’s because over land travel is expensive. The most important overland trade routes in history are the silk road and the trade roads across the Sahara Desert to Mali. Why is this? Because they transported low weight/high value materials. In the case of the silk road, it was silk. In the case of Mali, it was to gold. (Gold is very heavy, but it’s weight to value ratio is very high). Outside of those to notable overland routes, you don’t get overland routes that are important. Even today with the best rail technology ever, so much of Russia’s interior is under developed precisely because they are so far from navigable water.

The Strait of Lis is incredibly important and it is the same reason why the Strait of Gibraltar, the Bosporus Strait, the Dardanelles Strait, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Strait of Malacca are so important in the real world. Empires and nations have been built around straits. Nations go to war over who controls straits.

All of this is to say that “they aren't looking to trade with the Sea of Fallen Stars” doesn’t compute. Would your character prefer the rusty dagger or the +5 Vorpal Sword? Every character worth his salt would take the +5 Vorpal Sword in the same way Zhents would prefer to have access to the Sea of Fallen Stars.

You said: “At the same time he is dealing with Banites, beholders, dragons, and fellow ambitious wizards.”

Yes. He lives in a world filled with magic and monsters. So does everyone else. Can the other cities on the Moonsea, the Dalelands, etc afford to spend precious energy trying to thwart Zhentil keep while they have magic and monsters that cause havoc on their own borders? They have to live by the same rules Manshoon does.

[Edited for spelling]

Edited by - Kelcimer on 24 Aug 2021 07:45:51
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Kelcimer
Learned Scribe

USA
136 Posts

Posted - 24 Aug 2021 :  07:46:48  Show Profile Send Kelcimer a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Diffan,

Thank you for your response.

You said: “Keep in mind that Phlan WAS conquered by the Zhentarim army in 1375 DR by Cvaal Daoran, Hatemaster of Bane."

This is consistent with my point. Phlan should have been conquered 100 years earlier in 1275DR or thereabouts.
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Kelcimer
Learned Scribe

USA
136 Posts

Posted - 24 Aug 2021 :  08:23:54  Show Profile Send Kelcimer a Private Message  Reply with Quote
ericlboyd,

Thank you for your response! It is helping me work out in my head the Banite mindset for my game.

You said: “I think there’s also a religious element here or at least there was up through 1357 DR. Think of Rome and Constantinople when you think of Zhentil Keep and Mulmaster, at least from the perspective of Banites.”

I dunno that the Banite religion should be a stumbling block. Religion is weird in the Realms. I think the way it is presented in the books, you could either have it front and center in your games, just in the background as flavor, or anywhere in between. Religions would want to have the blessing of the state, or BE the state, but in a polytheistic society it makes more sense to me that it would be hard for any one god to become as dominant as Bane is supposed to have become in the Moonsea.

I will admit I have had a problem understanding why people would want to worship Bane. The interpretation that I have come to is that the argument Bane is always promoting is that a strong central government is necessary to contend with the nations problems. Whatever that it might be. With the Moonsea in such a harsh climate and with the orcs and monsters that are constantly attacking at the edges, it seems like that message of safety would be very popular in the Moonsea area. So that the Bainite message is a seductive one. “Give us your liberty and we will make sure you are safe. We will protect you from the world.”

In that context or in the presentation in the books, it makes sense to me that the Banites should be the cheerleaders for conquering the Tesh River Valley. Anything to expand the state and thus expand Bane’s tyranny. What reason is there for Banites to oppose a strong ruler or to oppose conquering the neighbors?

Thinking about it, shouldn't some number of Banites be blind nationalists? Should it not be that in a war between two nations that there should be Banite's on both sides? A Banite from Mulmaster should have some loyalty to Mulmaster and a Banite from Zhentil Keep should have some loyalty to Zhentil Keep. Yes, they are both Banites, but they have their country. Like how Russia and China were both communist during the Cold War, but that didn't mean they were buddies. Quite the opposite.

[Edited for spelling]

Edited by - Kelcimer on 24 Aug 2021 08:28:11
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Kelcimer
Learned Scribe

USA
136 Posts

Posted - 24 Aug 2021 :  09:32:42  Show Profile Send Kelcimer a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Hello nblanton!

You said: “This pains me, but I have to say, there is a lot to agree with from Kelcimer.”

This is great! I don’t think you could have phrased that any better. It made my day. Thank you! :)


You said: “I enjoyed Manshoon, but I always wondered what the Ed version was, as it supposedly was nerfed pretty seriously by the TSR folks.”

I had not heard this! That’s really interesting. The only thing I can think of is they didn’t want him to cast a shadow over the entire setting like Stradd does in Ravenloft, but surely there could have been some middle ground between those two.


You said: “That said, I wasn't ever really able to square the circle of what the aims of the Zhentarim were, or what they were prior to 1369DR”

I agree. I think it is like a lot of things in FR, in that if you look at it on a local scale it makes sense, but if you zoom too far out then it stops making sense. Perhaps it was mission creep? A lot of how stretched and unfocused that the Zhentarium became was probably not because they were thinking “If I was Manshoon, how would I expand the area of Zhent control and influence?”. Think about this from a marketing perspective. The Zhentarium is a name-brand villain organization. There have been any number of other bad-guy organizations in the Realms, but few capture the imagination quite like the Zhentarium. The developers know FR fans like them some Zhentarium. So as they started fleshing out other parts of the Realms the designers thought “Lets add some Zhentarium here! And then here! And then here! And here! And here and here!” Because they know that if they add some Zhentarium, there would be bad guys that players would understand and engage with. That’s not a satisfying in-game explanation though.


You said: “when it appears that Manshoon completely lost control of the organization following the sack of Zhentil Keep, from which Manshoon really never seems to recover, especially with the following Manshoon Wars.”

I wonder if they had gotten to a point where they didn’t know what to do with Manshoon anymore. Or at least they knew what they didn’t want him to do. Perhaps it was driven by the idea that they didn’t want him to be too successful. I never really understood why he would tolerate rivals for control of the Zhentarium within his organization. Maybe that was done as a way to balance the fact that Manshoon never seemed to be effective? If he is having to have these covert fights for control of the organization then, he can’t effectively direct his energies outwards? And then that situation existed for a while and then the developers didn’t know what to do with it. Because if they had Manshoon eliminate his rivals and regain undisputed control of the Zhentarium, then it would make sense that with his energies and focus finally being able to be directed outside of the Zhentarium, that he should be successful somewhere and become too big a bad guy? So by breaking up Manshoon and breaking up the Zhentarium, then different wings could have different agendas and they could leave that to the individual DM’s to figure out? I dunno.
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TBeholder
Great Reader

2421 Posts

Posted - 24 Aug 2021 :  09:48:58  Show Profile Send TBeholder a Private Message  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Kelcimer


He had spent a hundred years making sure the Zhentarium was a low level threat across much of Faerun, but never concentrated his power in any one place. To what purpose? Based upon what he had put his energies towards and what he had to show for it, I couldn't say he was competent.
Er... how does one control trade routes by sitting at home?
quote:
I can go along with the idea that he faced stiff resistance from Teshendale and Dagger Dale, but one good military campaign up the Tesh River Valley and both of them should have been firmly attached to Zhentil Keep.

Daggerdale is almost empty. And wasn't helped by large organized forces, at most some volunteers joining the local guerillas. Zhents couldn't do much about it.
The main problem with living on Moonsea is that non-human locals (giants, goblinoids etc from North, nagas... and yes, some elves) don't like all those humans moving in. They not just raid, occasionally they razed cities, some repeatedly. Hence the fortifications.

quote:
The idea that he waited FIVE DECADEs to go after Teshendale and another TWO to go after Dagger Dale makes utterly no sense.

Why? They are just a nasty little city-state.
quote:
During this time he frittered away a lot of energy on a lot of other stuff (such as the utterly useless Citadel of the Raven. No strategic value to that at all.) when he could have easily picked up the entire Tesh River Valley by the 1280's at the latest. With the entire river valley, Zhentil keep would have had more agricultural resources to support a larger population and a larger tax base to maintain it's army.

It starts giving impression that you played strategy games too much. And not particularly great ones.
quote:
Phlan and Hillsfar could both march armies directly at Zhentil Keep.

What armies?
quote:
Hillsfar and Phlan would have been wise to team up an crush Zhentil Keep at any point.

Even if Hillsfar would somehow trust these dwarf-lovers, what contribution could it expect from them?

quote:
Think of the geographic position of Germany on the Northern European Plain with France on one side and Russia on the other.

I think it was much larger than a city-state even in its leanest times.
quote:
Hillsfar would have to have recognized that it would not have stood a chance of being able to match the economic and military might of a Stowjanow and Tesh River Valley's united. That should have been Hillsfar's nightmare scenario.

No arguing. As bad dreams go, it takes a good chunk of the cake.
Though most of the time good old "incoming solid tide of orcs" would take a greater one.
quote:
That would have resulted in Manshoon having his countries borders be anchored by Cormanthor to the south, the Dragonspire Mountains to the North, mountains and Border Forest to the West, and the Moonsea and Stojanow to the East.

Assuming he would have funds to even start it at all?
This could have resulted in Zhentil Keep being flattened much earlier.
Either by humanoids or the real big boys from the Sea of Fallen Stars concerned with the aggressive upstart (and Banites, too). Remember the Crusade against Tuigans? This would be much, much easier.

quote:
And Mulmaster would be in a great position to control the Strait of Lis and cut Zhentil Keep off from the larger market of the Sea of fallen Stars.

The problem is, Lis is... swampy, not always navigable, and even then not easily.
Which is why the place is not of great value, otherwise Lisen Sands would see much more fighting and/or there would be a city right there to benefit from all this trade, not just Mulmaster nearby.
Hence the importance of land routes.
Then there are Ironfang Keep, Wet Lisen and local dragons. Who would see Zhentish expansion as an immediate threat. Thus interfere with Zhents whenever convenient and not interfere (on the way in, that is ) with any invaders willing to crush said threat.

quote:
Yes! Let us rebuild the strategically useless Citadel of the Raven!

Why do you think it's strategically useless?
quote:
Yes! Let us try to create "trade routes" across inhospitable land that won't ever return on investment!

Why won't they? Considering the alternatives are worse.
quote:
Yes! Let's needlessly antagonize being in X land and only put enough strength into it so that it will be like Vietnam! Always fighting! Never able to really attain victory! Yes!

They had troubles holding one dale, and you think they can conquer and develop the entire Moonsea region?

The root errors in Original Post seems to boil down to this:
1. Various city-states of Moonsea in general are not World War grade powers. Nor Seven Years' War grade powers. Nor even on par with Impiltur.
They don't field huge armies. And what they have is tied guarding their territories (not just from each other, from humanoids) and patrolling; sometimes they raid and skirmish in the contested areas (Zhentil Keep vs. Hillsfar), but that's it. Zhentil Keep can bully some of its peers, but cannot simply conquer any of them, unless in very favorable circumstances, and even then cannot hold for long.
Generally, the "Mooneyes" certainly have their strong sides (Phlan was raided by just about everyone and everything, destroyed utterly, once literally dragged to Hell... and they didn't call quit, still live in that town!), but they seem not fit to build kingdoms.
2. It's the "Black Network", not "Black Empire". The goal is not to conquer Moonsea shores and then the rest of Faerun.
If only because it's obviously impossible. Zhentil Hold is but a nasty little city-state, it struggled to keep one dale with tiny population under control for years.
Exactly because they are not a top tier power, military or otherwise, and chose a path to power that requires at least some cooperation from others, they don't antagonize everyone if they can help it, which includes not using overt violence even as much as they could... which is not that much (again, Daggerdale and endless fighting over Yulash).
3. Black Network is not monolithic pack of prize hounds eagerly awaiting Manshoon's command to be unleashed. All Zhentish high-ups are his rivals for a slice of power, big or small.
So he needs Banites, but cannot let expand power base unchecked, because if they grow too much he may wind up removed or made their little puppet.

quote:
Originally posted by Kelcimer

The wiki says that it is set in 1334 and that Elminster plotted with Fzoul to stop Manshoon from overthrowing the Council of Zhentil Keep.

This in itself covers the heart of the matter: short of killing Manshoon, the most efficient way to clip his wings with a rusty ax was the usual factional tug-o-war. If he is prevented from becoming the absolute ruler, his "fellow" Zhents will do what they can to increase their cuts of power and funds.
Now add a few outside powers shopping for puppets (Red Wizards, Malaugrym... fellbarbs...) and this merry crowd will leave no rat unmolested. And in Zhentil Keep that says something.
"Helping" them to turn into Coalition Government of Seven Cooks evidently worked well.

People never wonder How the world goes round -Helloween
And even I make no pretense Of having more than common sense -R.W.Wood
It's not good, Eric. It's a gazebo. -Ed Whitchurch
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George Krashos
Master of Realmslore

Australia
6662 Posts

Posted - 24 Aug 2021 :  14:34:55  Show Profile Send George Krashos a Private Message  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Kelcimer

George Krashos,

Thank you for your more detailed response. There is actually a lot to break down and I will do my best to address each point. I apologize for the length of the post.

You said, "In a nutshell, your analysis conflates control of the Zhentarim with control of Zhentil Keep. In the time period you specify 1280-1300, he controls the nascent Zhentarim, not the city."

I do not think I am conflating anything, as three source books support my understanding.

From the “Villains Lorebook” published in 1998 page 47:
"Over the years, Manshoon easily took control of the Keep's ruling council [...]. With the city under his thumb, Manshoon created the Zhentarium in 1261 DR."

From “The Ruins of Zhentil Keep Campaign Book” published in 1995 page 14-15:
“Mindful of his exposed position at the pinnacle of power in Zhentil Keep, Manshoon immediately set about creating a secret organization - the Zhentarium - that would support him, his rule over Zhentil Keep, and his ambitions throughout the rest of the Realms.”

From “Cloak and Dagger” published in 2000 pages 32 and 33:
“Working his way to power through patricide and fratricide, Manshoon became a lord of Zhentil Keep, and swiftly moved to gain full control over his fellow lords. He formed his secret society, the Zhentarium, to act as a separate power group and allow him more than mere rulership of Zhentil Keep.”

These source books are clear and consistent, that Manshoon became the ruler of Zhentil Keep and from that position of wealth and power he then created the Zhentarium.



I'd rather not debate you on your opinions because that's not an efficient use of my time.

My only further response will be to let you know that there is a problem with Manshoon's history from Ruins of Zhentil Keep onwards.

The quote from Villain's Lorebook is a simplification and truncation of Manshooon's grasp for power. He was a newly-installed Lord of Zhentil Keep and not yet a powerful mage when he created the Zhentarim. He absolutely did not have the "city under his thumb" in 1261 DR.

The Ruins of Zhentil Keep source is again a simplification. The term "pinnacle of power" speaks to Manshoon as a Lord of the Council, not sole ruler of Zhentil Keep, nor even First Lord. The reference to his "rule over Zhentil Keep" reflects what would occur in the future, not what was the state of affairs in 1261 DR.

Your Cloak and Dagger quote again seeks to simplify the actions of a century in a paragraph.

The most instructive fact is that it takes Manshoon 70 years to be in a position to openly seek to rule Zhentil Keep as First Lord, noting that this event occurs in 1334 DR.

But all of this is merely a justification for the published Manshoon/Zhentarim dates in the sources. They are problematic because the Ruins of Zhentil Keep accessory screwed up Manshoon's timeline. Badly.

The dates given in Ruins of Zhentil Keep (published in 1995) regarding Manshoon's ascension are misconceived. The correct story and chronology is set out in Ed Greenwood's article series "Elminster's Everwinking Eye" in the RPGA Polyhedron Newszine - specifically the issues #82-86 which were published in 1993.

Those articles make it clear that Manshoon's ascension occurred in the 1320s DR (the article series is written from the perspective of the 1350s DR Ol' Grey Box dates being based on notes that Ed had at the time the campaign setting was released) due to the narrative making it clear that Manshoon's ascension to the Council occurred in "Recent History" (issue #83, p.30) where it is noted that his father Harlshoon was First Lord of Zhentil Keep "30 or so winters ago". Given this, it makes sense that Manshoon's dad is First Lord of Zhentil Keep in the 1320s, Manshoon takes a seat on the council in that decade with Iorltar as First Lord, founds the Zhentarim in the late 1320s DR and then looks to take over in 1334 DR as per Ed's short story.

That's how it should have been .... except for the historical bungling that was undertaken in the Ruins of Zhentil Keep boxed set, for no understandable reason other than to have Manshoon be around for a "long time" as befits a BBEG.

In that proper, shortened timeframe, his perceived lack of "achievements" makes more sense, yes?

-- George Krashos


"Because only we, contrary to the barbarians, never count the enemy in battle." -- Aeschylus
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Asharak
Learned Scribe

France
270 Posts

Posted - 24 Aug 2021 :  20:07:39  Show Profile Send Asharak a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Thank you, this is very informative and sheds light on a lot of nebulous points.

"Soyez réalistes : demandez l'impossible"

Sorry for my English... it's not my native tongue.
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sleyvas
Skilled Spell Strategist

USA
11803 Posts

Posted - 24 Aug 2021 :  21:58:41  Show Profile Send sleyvas a Private Message  Reply with Quote
just curious if you know offhand, who went off-book and modified his history for Ruins of Zhentil Keep (a product I've always heard good stuff for but never read actually, though I have hunted down some quotes from people in it)?

Alavairthae, may your skill prevail

Phillip aka Sleyvas
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George Krashos
Master of Realmslore

Australia
6662 Posts

Posted - 25 Aug 2021 :  00:21:08  Show Profile Send George Krashos a Private Message  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by sleyvas

just curious if you know offhand, who went off-book and modified his history for Ruins of Zhentil Keep (a product I've always heard good stuff for but never read actually, though I have hunted down some quotes from people in it)?



The authors of RoZK were Kevin Melka and John Terra wth additional design by David Cook and Ed. Ed's design input was giving them his notes on Manshoon and the Zhents as per his Polyhedron articles.

-- George Krashos

"Because only we, contrary to the barbarians, never count the enemy in battle." -- Aeschylus
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Kelcimer
Learned Scribe

USA
136 Posts

Posted - 25 Aug 2021 :  05:18:17  Show Profile Send Kelcimer a Private Message  Reply with Quote
George Krashos,

I appreciate your response.

quote:
Originally posted by George Krashos
The dates given in Ruins of Zhentil Keep (published in 1995) regarding Manshoon's ascension are misconceived. The correct story and chronology is set out in Ed Greenwood's article series "Elminster's Everwinking Eye" in the RPGA Polyhedron Newszine - specifically the issues #82-86 which were published in 1993.



I’m glad you can find PDFs of the magazine online. From “Elminster's Everwinking Eye" from Issue 83 of Polyhedron page 31:

quote:

Manshoon overthrew and slew Ulsan. Mindful of his exposed position at the pinnacle of power in Zhentil Keep, Manshoon set about creating a secret organization that would support him and hold his rule over Zhentil Keep secure.



This passage is almost identical to the passage that would later appear in “The Ruins of Zhentil Keep” that I quoted above. There is no misrepresentation of Ed Greenwood here.

Also, from the 1993 box set, “Running the Realms” page 37:

quote:

Manshoon, a noble of Zhentil keep, slew his older brother Asmuth and seized control of the city’s governing councils by skillful intrigue, staunch allies…



These passages are consistent with the later passages that have already been quoted.

quote:
Originally posted by George Krashos
Those articles make it clear that Manshoon's ascension occurred in the 1320s DR



I looked all throughout those articles and they do not list a single date.

quote:
Originally posted by George Krashos
In that proper, shortened timeframe, his perceived lack of "achievements" makes more sense, yes?



I agree that a shortened timeframe would make much more sense. But all the products say that Manshoon came to power in 1261 or thereabouts. Even the short story you point to, it is not saying that the events of his killing his brother and such happen in 1334 or near there. From what you have said about the short story, the it is also consistent with the idea that he has been Manshoon for quite a long time.

And there doesn’t even have to be a contradiction between him coming to power in 1361 and not being in control of Zhentil Keep in 1334. Manshoon could have simply lost control of Zhentil Keep in the meantime. As far I understand there isn’t any contradiction in the lore.

Now, the changes you would make to the lore make sense, but that’s not what the lore is. I’m not speaking to the Manshoon of your Forgotten Realms. I’m speaking to the Manshoon as detailed in the lore.
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Kelcimer
Learned Scribe

USA
136 Posts

Posted - 25 Aug 2021 :  05:24:34  Show Profile Send Kelcimer a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Hello Storyteller Hero!

quote:
Originally posted by Storyteller Hero

Manshoon perhaps doesn't need to be a conquerer. That attracts dangerous attention anyway and Manshoon has a reputation of being cautious to the point of having clones on standby.



Then why is he portrayed in the source material as bad guy bent on dominating all of Faerun?

quote:
Originally posted by Storyteller Hero
Manshoon probably doesn't see political power or military power the way that many mortals would.


A Manshoon that is over 100 years old? Sure. That could be a valid interpretation of modern day Manshoon.

But I am not talking about modern day Manshoon that is over 100 years old. I am talking about hot blooded young Manshoon who had just taken control of Zhentil Keep. Why should a young Manshoon have the perspective of an old Manshoon? That doesn’t make any sense.
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George Krashos
Master of Realmslore

Australia
6662 Posts

Posted - 25 Aug 2021 :  05:47:42  Show Profile Send George Krashos a Private Message  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Kelcimer

George Krashos,

I appreciate your response.

<big snip>




No worries. It's clear you didn't understood what I was trying to convey to you, but you keep right on enjoying the Realms.

-- George Krashos

"Because only we, contrary to the barbarians, never count the enemy in battle." -- Aeschylus
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Kelcimer
Learned Scribe

USA
136 Posts

Posted - 25 Aug 2021 :  07:13:58  Show Profile Send Kelcimer a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Hello TBeholder,

quote:
Originally posted by TBeholder
Er... how does one control trade routes by sitting at home?



This is a strawman. I at no point suggested Manshoon stay home.

I suggested he concentrate his power to good effect. I suggest he first concentrate his power to his backside up the Tesh River Valley. Once secure there, that he concentrate his power towards Phlan. Once secure again, concentrate his power towards Hillsfar. Once secure there, more on to the next target.

quote:
Originally posted by TBeholder
Why? They [teshendale and Dagger Dale] are just a nasty little city-state.



Because it would increase the area of land he controls, which would increase the amount of agriculture at his disposal, increase his tax base, and secure his Western borders. Not rocket surgery.

quote:
Originally posted by TBeholder
[Regarding Phlan and Hillsfar] What armies?



If you a read abit about history, you would know that most countries can raise soliders with a bit a of time. The most important bit is having population. If they have time and money to train troops to professional soldiers, all is to the better, but that wasn’t always necessary.

quote:
Originally posted by TBeholder
It starts giving impression that you played strategy games too much. And not particularly great ones.



I am making my arguments based upon my knowledge of history, economics, geography, politics, etc. I have been clear in this. I suggest that you not cast aspersions. It is not a good look.



quote:
Originally posted by TBeholder
I think it was much larger than a city-state even in its leanest times.



I was using an example that was far larger in scale, yes, but illustrates the basic point about a state being vulnerable on two sides.

quote:
Originally posted by TBeholder
Assuming he would have funds to even start it at all?
This could have resulted in Zhentil Keep being flattened much earlier.
Either by humanoids or the real big boys from the Sea of Fallen Stars concerned with the aggressive upstart (and Banites, too).



Why wouldn’t Manshoon have the funds to raise troops to go up the Tesh River Valley? And even if he didn’t have funds, he could promise conquered land (and other spoils of war) to his soldiers. This is something that is commonly done throughout history. Why shouldn’t Manshoon figure out that you can pay people with conquered peoples stuff?


Even if he did have the funds it would still be a good idea to promise conquered land for his soldier so as to better


quote:
Originally posted by TBeholder
The problem is, Lis is...not always navigable, and even then not easily



It doesn’t say that in the source material anywhere that I can see. And the source material does say that stuff mined and produced in the Moonsea area is traded elsewhere in the Realms. The subtext is that it passes through the Strait of Lis. With my knowledge of how traderoutes actually work in history, it is the only avenue for the amount of trade the Moonsea is supposed to conduct.

BTW I have been referring to it as the Strait of Lis, because rivers don’t connect large boddies of water at narrow points, straits do. The idea that you have a swampy bit connecting two large bodies of water has no relationship to how geography actually works. I have actually editted my map of Faerun to widen Lis into a proper strait. But my realms aside, on the maps it is always depicted as flanked by forests, not swamps. I don’t care what Ed may or may not have said after the lore was established.


quote:
Originally posted by TBeholder
[Refering to the Citadel of the Raven] Why do you think it's strategically useless?


The Citadel of the Raven is located on the northern slope of the Dragonspire Mountains. Throughout history, nations have sought to anchor their borders against mountains and seas. Both mountains and seas are enormous obsticales to moving an army. Rivers can also be used to anchor a border. Not all rivers are equal, but generally speaking there are only so many places that are good for an army to cross. And when Armies are making a crossing they are especially vulnerable.

So why maintain a fortess on the opposite side of a moutain range you are using to anchor your border? If defending against orc tribes to the north, then it would make a lot more sense of it to be located strategically on the gap between the Dragonspire and the Desertmouth Mountains. The River Stojanow and Dragonspires together should be an excellent defensive line. The weakest point is that gap. An army of orcs can just come down throguh the gap and then it has not large georgaphic obsticle north of the Tesh until it reaches Phlan.

Now you could say, “But there is that bit of mountains to the north of the Dragonspires. Couldn’t you say it is to control that gap?”

An orc army could still go north of those mountains, skirt the eastern edge of the Border Forest, and completely bypass the Citadel of the Raven, and then have free reign north of the Tesh.

Now you might say, “But it defends a pass though the mountains!”. Okay, fine. If you have a fortification to defend a moutain pass, then it makes sense to place it where the pass is at a narrow point so as that you need as few men to defend the place as possible. Think Thermopylae only with an actual fortification to defend from.

I am working on your question about trade routes. WIll post that in a bit.

Edited by - Kelcimer on 25 Aug 2021 07:14:43
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Kelcimer
Learned Scribe

USA
136 Posts

Posted - 25 Aug 2021 :  07:36:57  Show Profile Send Kelcimer a Private Message  Reply with Quote
TBeholder,

The question on trade routes got so long that I decided to give it it’s own comment. If anyone is not interested in trade routes than give this comment a miss.

quote:
Originally posted by TBeholder
[Refering to the "trade routes" across inhospitable land that won't ever return on investment] Why won't they? Considering the alternatives are worse



From the post you linked to:
quote:
Originally posted by The Hooded One
Manshoon and Fzoul wanted to establish the SHORTEST (and therefore cheapest) trade route between Zhentil Keep and the Sword Coast ports - - and they wanted it to be a trade route they controlled every inch of.



*sigh*. Okay, just because a trade route is shortest as the crow flies does not mean it is the cheapest. And controling every inch of it? That is enormously expensive. Any warlord, bandit or monster can simply walk into your “trade route” and shut it down.

I made reference earlier to how the avergae size of an ancient greek mechant ship could transport 250 tons of material. How many horses would you need to transport the same amount of material by horse? I didn’t know the answer to this, so I googled and found this article. https://horserookie.com/how-much-weight-can-a-horse-pull/

There are a bunch of variables.
quote:

What type of load is being pulled? (e.g. dead weight vs. on wheels)
What type of surface is the horse working on? For example, a paved road is easier to pull a load over than a gravel road. A gravel road is easier than a grassy or muddy field.
What’s the terrain like? (e.g. flat, gentle hills, or mountainous)
What’s the weather like? Hot humid conditions are harder on horses than a cool, dry climate.
Is the horse working for a short or long time? Horses can work harder for a short period of time, but their load capacity diminishes over a longer day.
What is the horses’ temperament? Some horses are simply more willing to work than others.
What is the horse’s body type and level of fitness? Physically fit horses with broader shoulders and big strong legs can pull more than finely-boned or out of shape horses.



Apparently two good draft horses can pull 18,000 pounds or 9 tons. To pull 250 tons so you would need about 56 horses, 28 carts, and 28 drivers. That is not counting supply wagons and caravan guards. That doesn’t say anything about the state of roads.

How fast could a wagon train go?
https://www.reference.com/history/far-did-covered-wagon-travel-day-b5eb8c21c2663684

Apparently with a load of 2,500 pounds it is talking about 10-15 miles per day. For calculations I am going to iron man it and say they somehow get 15 miles a day consistently. So that 500 miles across the Anauroch would take about 33 days to traverse with light wagon loads of 2,500 pounds (1.25 tons). If each wagon only hd 1.25 tons, then we are actually talking about 200 wagons, 400 horses, 200 drivers, etc.

All the horses would need feed. If they are crossing the Anauroch, then water and heat would be intense issues. Having good solid roads would help the speed, which wilderness areas do not have. Having gap days to allow the horses time to recover is important. The shortest Zhent “trade route” across the Anauroch is a total of about 700 miles from Zhentil Keep, with about 500 of those miles being in desert. Those 700 hundred miles translates into 46 days, with 33 days just crossing the Anauroch. It’s another 400 miles downstream, and then 100 miles to Waterdeep, which takes about 7 days. Total trip time is 53 days.

Now compare this to going the sea route.

Looking at the map, it looks like the sea route from Zhentil Keep through the River Lis to Elversult would be about 1,000 miles. Ancient greek merchant ships could go about 5 knots. Lets assume that the ship is only activley moving for 16 hours per day, so it travels at 80 knots per day. The cargo ship gets the 250 tons to Elversult in about 13 days. Transporting that cargo up the river to Proskur and then overland to Easting means only transporting that 250 tons across 100 miles of land, that is temperate, on a reasonably well kept and well traveled road. At 15 miles per day with a wagon train, that trip is accomplished in 7 days. It is then about 500 miles down the river to Baldur’s Gate and then another 400 up to Waterdeep. At 5 knots, that should take about 12 days.

The sea route takes a total of 32 days to make the entire trip to get 250 tons to Waterdeep from Zhentil Keep, while it takes the wagon train that long just to cross the Anauroch. Now bear in mind, a ship doesn’t need to feed hundreds of horses. And it would require much less manpower overall.

This is a “back of the enevlope” calculation, but I hope you can see how the sea route, while longer, would be shorter in time and far less costly.

Even if, the River Lis is a pain to navigate, it would still be a superior route. AND there would not be the added expense of trying to control “every inch of” the trade route.
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Kelcimer
Learned Scribe

USA
136 Posts

Posted - 25 Aug 2021 :  08:12:58  Show Profile Send Kelcimer a Private Message  Reply with Quote
TBeholder,

And here is the response to the third part of your post. I appreciate this BTW. responding to all of these points is helping me better understand some things for my game.

quote:
Originally posted by TBeholder
They had troubles holding one dale, and you think they can conquer and develop the entire Moonsea region?



The fact that they had trouble holding on to one dale does not change the fact that in actual history there are plenty of examples of new rulers coming onto the throne and conquering a lot more land than the Moonsea. The fact that apparently they had such trouble with one dale means they are protraying Manshoon as far less competent than a lot of the real life rulers of history. Remember, much of the basis of my c


quote:
Originally posted by TBeholder
The root errors in Original Post seems to boil down to this:
1. Various city-states of Moonsea in general are not World War grade powers. Nor Seven Years' War grade powers.



Thisis a strawman. I am not saying they are equivelant to a power in a World War or the Seven Year’s War. I am making certain comparisions, but really I am not saying anything that does not also apply to nations going back to Rome, Ancient Greece, and even the Broze Age Collapse. When new rulers get on the throne and they are both competent and smart, conquering the easily conquerable neighbors is one of the basic moves.

quote:
Originally posted by TBeholder
2. It's the "Black Network", not "Black Empire". The goal is not to conquer Moonsea shores and then the rest of Faerun.



To paraphrase nblanton from above, I have never been able to figure out what the aims of the Zhentarium actually were. The lack of coherant goals by Manshoon in particular and the Zhentarium in general is kinda the point.

quote:
Originally posted by TBeholder
3. Black Network is not monolithic pack of prize hounds eagerly awaiting Manshoon's command to be unleashed.



Again, this is the point. Manshoon founded the Zhentarium it in order to secure his rule, but in practice he did not run the organization to this end. He let it get completely away from him. That is not in anyway being a Grade A villian. It is not competent in the least.



quote:
Originally posted by TBeholder
This in itself covers the heart of the matter: short of killing Manshoon, the most efficient way to clip his wings with a rusty ax was the usual factional tug-o-war.



How about taking away his city? Suppose we have someone of diplomatic and military genuis like Bismark either in charge of Hillsfar, or is it’s cheif general. They enter into an allaince with Phlan and the Dales and the Harpers. The agreement for the post war peace is that hillsfar gets Zhent territory south of the river tesh all the way to teshwave, Phlan gest Zhent territory north of the Tesh all the way to Teshwave, the remaining territory between them and Daggerdale (where the gap between the Dragonspires and Cormanthor is narroest) will be recognized as independent communities. Basically, everyone would not only be ride of a united Zhent territory, but they would also get borders much better anchored by strong geographic elements.
The dales harrasses from the West, Phlan from the north, and Hillsfar from the east. Take all his land and his city away from him.

After taking the heart of his powerbase away from manshoon, how many in his network would respect him? Everybody should sense the weakness of Manshoon and try and take their part of the Black Network and make it their own. Manshoon might get away and still be a powerful mage you wouldn’t want to mess with, but he would be vastly diminished.
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Kelcimer
Learned Scribe

USA
136 Posts

Posted - 25 Aug 2021 :  08:16:26  Show Profile Send Kelcimer a Private Message  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Kelcimer

TBeholder,

And here is the response to the third part of your post. I appreciate this BTW. responding to all of these points is helping me better understand some things for my game.

quote:
Originally posted by TBeholder
They had troubles holding one dale, and you think they can conquer and develop the entire Moonsea region?



The fact that they had trouble holding on to one dale does not change the fact that in actual history there are plenty of examples of new rulers coming onto the throne and conquering a lot more land than the Moonsea. The fact that apparently they had such trouble with one dale means they are portraying Manshoon as far less competent than a lot of the real life rulers of history.


quote:
Originally posted by TBeholder
The root errors in Original Post seems to boil down to this:
1. Various city-states of Moonsea in general are not World War grade powers. Nor Seven Years' War grade powers.



This is a straw-man. I am not saying they are equivalent to a power in a World War or the Seven Year’s War. I am making certain comparisons, but really I am not saying anything that does not also apply to nations going back to Rome, Ancient Greece, and even the Bronze Age Collapse. When new rulers get on the throne and they are both competent and smart, conquering the easily conquerable neighbors is one of the basic moves.

quote:
Originally posted by TBeholder
2. It's the "Black Network", not "Black Empire". The goal is not to conquer Moonsea shores and then the rest of Faerun.



To paraphrase nblanton from above, I have never been able to figure out what the aims of the Zhentarium actually were. The lack of coherent goals by Manshoon in particular and the Zhentarium in general is kinda the point.

quote:
Originally posted by TBeholder
3. Black Network is not monolithic pack of prize hounds eagerly awaiting Manshoon's command to be unleashed.



Again, this is the point. Manshoon founded the Zhentarium it in order to secure his rule, but in practice he did not run the organization to this end. He let it get completely away from him. That is not in anyway being a Grade A villain. It is not competent in the least.



[quote]Originally posted by TBeholder
This in itself covers the heart of the matter: short of killing Manshoon, the most efficient way to clip his wings with a rusty ax was the usual factional tug-o-war.



How about taking away his city? Suppose we have someone of diplomatic and military genius like Bismarck either in charge of Hillsfar, or is it’s chief general. They enter into an alliance with Phlan and the Dales and the Harpers. The agreement for the post war peace is that Hillsfar gets Zhent territory south of the river Tesh all the way to Teshwave, Phlan gets Zhent territory north of the Tesh all the way to Teshwave, the remaining territory between them and Daggerdale (where the gap between the Dragonspires and Cormanthor is narrowest) will be recognized as independent communities. Basically, everyone would not only be ride of a united Zhent territory, but they would also get borders much better anchored by strong geographic elements.
The dales harasses from the West, Phlan from the north, and Hillsfar from the east. Take all his land and his city away from him.

After taking the heart of his power-base away from Manshoon, how many in his network would respect him? Everybody should sense the weakness of Manshoon and try and take their part of the Black Network and make it their own. Manshoon might get away and still be a powerful mage you wouldn’t want to mess with, but he would be vastly diminished.


[Edited for spelling and capitalization]
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The Masked Mage
Great Reader

USA
2420 Posts

Posted - 25 Aug 2021 :  09:11:36  Show Profile Send The Masked Mage a Private Message  Reply with Quote
My guess is, like is often the case, the view that Manshoon is something of an oafish villain comes from his portrayal in some of Ed's books, which is unfortunate. He has said on numerous occasions, on these forums, in interviews and conversations elsewhere, that in most cases this was caused by the editing process.

Manshoon, by nature in a multi-layered thinker. He has plans, and back-up plans, and sub-plans and contingency-on-contingency plans. This, obviously, is not easily conveyed in a story format. The result is, you get a 2 dimensional cartoonish version of Manshoon, often resembling the Coyote and his pursuit of the Roadrunner. When he straps that rocket to his back, you know already that he will fail and can't help but think to yourself "wow he is stupid, how does he not know the result".

All of this was only exacerbated by the handling of the Zhentarim in 3rd/4th Edition. My opinion on that topic has been stated in other scrolls, so I'll leave it there.

When taken in this buffoonish light, Manshoon is a waste. However, when Manshoon becomes an amoral genius - the Professor James Moriarty of the forgotten realms, all of a sudden the extent of his power and influence is limitless. Easily my favorite Realms character.

Edited by - The Masked Mage on 25 Aug 2021 09:12:05
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Kelcimer
Learned Scribe

USA
136 Posts

Posted - 25 Aug 2021 :  09:21:48  Show Profile Send Kelcimer a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Hello George Krashos!

quote:
Originally posted by George Krashos
Those articles make it clear that Manshoon's ascension occurred in the 1320s DR (the article series is written from the perspective of the 1350s DR Ol' Grey Box dates being based on notes that Ed had at the time the campaign setting was released) due to the narrative making it clear that Manshoon's ascension to the Council occurred in "Recent History" (issue #83, p.30) where it is noted that his father Harlshoon was First Lord of Zhentil Keep "30 or so winters ago". Given this, it makes sense that Manshoon's dad is First Lord of Zhentil Keep in the 1320s, Manshoon takes a seat on the council in that decade with Iorltar as First Lord, founds the Zhentarim in the late 1320s DR and then looks to take over in 1334 DR as per Ed's short story.



I missed that bit. Yes, I found that part of the story. Ed doesn't actually say what year he is speaking from in the articles. He starts talking about 700 years ago in the first article and doesn't do anything to nail down the timeline, just establish that events happened in a certain order. When he gets up to recent history he is just as vague. He could be speaking from the 1350's, but there is nothing in the article to confirm that.

quote:
Originally posted by George Krashos
It's clear you didn't understood what I was trying to convey to you, but you keep right on enjoying the Realms.



In an alternate version of the Realms, Zhents conquered Teshwave without Manshoon or the Zhentarium, Manshoon starts the Zhentarium in the 1320's and comes to power in 1334, and then quickly conquers Daggerdale. He does not then turn his attention to Phlan, and then subsequently to Hillsfar because he wants to be vulnerable to an invasion from two fronts. In 1353 he looses control of Daggerdale, and could thus be put into a war on three fronts. Contrary to all rational military thinking and the natural tendency of rulers to anchor their borders to hard geographical boundaries, Manshoon chooses to while away his time causing mischief in the rest of the Realms and enabling the organization to fitter away resources and create power blocks in his organization that will work against him. In this manner he engineers his own demise when his rivals in the organization he founded kill him and accidentally set off the Manshoon Wars where he basically looses everything. Okay, he is not as much of an idiot as he is in the official lore represented in the sourcebooks, but it still is not the history of a Grade A villain. In three and a half decades he never seeks to make sure that he is secure in his own rule. What a waste.

In your version he doesn't have nearly so much time and so he makes more sense. I get that. It's not as bad, but he is still unimpressive as a bad guy.

I don't see how this should affect my analysis of Manshoon in my original post. I am talking about how Manshoon is portrayed. You could be entirely correct that it should have been that other version of events, but that version of events is not in all the classic source books that I have at my disposal that have informed my game for the past 22 years, nor the games of many other that run in the Realms.

Functionally your first two posts could be summed up as "Read this obscure short story that is not reflected in the source books that you and everyone else has used since the mid 90's for FR games."

I get your point, but it seems like a round about way to agree with me without seeming to agree and also without explicitly saying what your solution is. You agree that the timeline as presented in the lore is dumb and makes Manshoon look like an idiot, and you believe the solution is to ditch the lore as presented as a patchwork fix.

This raises an interesting question. If one could just straight up rewrite the lore so that Manshoon and the Zhentarium are everything they are supposed to be, then what exactly would that look like? I'm going to have to sleep on that one.
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Brimstone
Great Reader

USA
3286 Posts

Posted - 25 Aug 2021 :  09:27:44  Show Profile Send Brimstone a Private Message  Reply with Quote
TSR wanted Manshoon to be portrayed as mustache twirling buffoon...

"These things also I have observed: that knowledge of our world is
to be nurtured like a precious flower, for it is the most precious
thing we have. Wherefore guard the word written and heed
words unwritten and set them down ere they fade . . . Learn
then, well, the arts of reading, writing, and listening true, and they
will lead you to the greatest art of all: understanding."
Alaundo of Candlekeep
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Wooly Rupert
Master of Mischief
Moderator

USA
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Posted - 25 Aug 2021 :  11:00:45  Show Profile Send Wooly Rupert a Private Message  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Brimstone

TSR wanted Manshoon to be portrayed as mustache twirling buffoon...



Indeed. Part of the ridiculous Code of Ethics that TSR had was that the good guys had to win, every time -- so even if it was a trilogy, the good guys had to win in each book. Evil couldn't have even a temporary victory.

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Seravin
Master of Realmslore

Canada
1279 Posts

Posted - 25 Aug 2021 :  11:43:30  Show Profile Send Seravin a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Not a lot of the Zhents make sense to me. How they survived the setbacks faced in the various novels of 1st and 2nd edition is a bit baffling. Crown of Fire alone saw the utter decimation of the Citadel of the Raven including deaths of Manshoon (clone saved him), Fzoul (Manshoon resurrected him inexplicably), hundreds of troops and I believe dozens of Beholders, as well as severe structural damage.

Cyric razed Zhentil Keep itself during 2nd edition era. They suffered more of a blow than most and somehow just magically restore their finances and manpower when needed. I wouldn't look for logic here. They're the default mustache twirling villains until the Shade "returned" in 3rd edition to take the place along with the Drow and anything else shadow/dark/etc. to be "cool" until WOW brought in Lich King then we needed to have undead lich Szass take over the spot.
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Captain Grafalcon
Learned Scribe

Brazil
129 Posts

Posted - 25 Aug 2021 :  14:36:33  Show Profile Send Captain Grafalcon a Private Message  Reply with Quote
[quote]Originally posted by The Masked Mage

My guess is, like is often the case, the view that Manshoon is something of an oafish villain comes from his portrayal in some of Ed's books, which is unfortunate. He has said on numerous occasions, on these forums, in interviews and conversations elsewhere, that in most cases this was caused by the editing process.

Manshoon, by nature in a multi-layered thinker. He has plans, and back-up plans, and sub-plans and contingency-on-contingency plans. This, obviously, is not easily conveyed in a story format. The result is, you get a 2 dimensional cartoonish version of Manshoon, often resembling the Coyote and his pursuit of the Roadrunner. When he straps that rocket to his back, you know already that he will fail and can't help but think to yourself "wow he is stupid, how does he not know the result".

All of this was only exacerbated by the handling of the Zhentarim in 3rd/4th Edition. My opinion on that topic has been stated in other scrolls, so I'll leave it there.

When taken in this buffoonish light, Manshoon is a waste. However, when Manshoon becomes an amoral genius - the Professor James Moriarty of the forgotten realms, all of a sudden the extent of his power and influence is limitless. Easily my favorite Realms character.



In Ed's novels, the impression is that Elminster himself sees Manshoon as a shell of his former self, someone brilliant who has been lost in multiple machinations and betrayal. That's not counting all the contingencies involving his clones. At least in the novels, to add another layer, he's pretty self-sabotaging.

I like the eccentricity Ed gives the villains in his novels.

"Surely you recognize that armies carrying banners are almost always thieves—until they win."
Jarlaxle, mercenary leader of Bregan D'aerthe.
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